We eagerly wait for the opinion polls and exit polls to peak into the future and get a glimpse of who will form the government. But we all know that even if the opinion polls are not biased to favour a particular party, their methodology and accuracy is questionable. In the past either they have been proven to be totally wrong (different party than the prediction forming government) or way off the mark in prediction of number of seats for the winning or losing party. Whether this happens due to statistical margin of error or a deliberate attempt to influence voters is food for thought for all of us. But instead of predicting any win for a particular party here we will discuss circumstances which are in favor of the two main contesting parties viz Samajwadi Party and Bhartiya Janta Party.
Circumstances and conditions which favour return of the current BJP government:
1. Almost all major Opinion Polls are predicting the return of the BJP government though with a reduced majority. Even though Opinion Polls in past have proven wrong like in West Bengal elections, they can't be completely ignored.
2. Yogi Adityanath has a very high approval rating amongst all other CM post contestants and especially amongst the core BJP voters. He is also viewed as a future Prime Minister by most of the supporters. Additionally the effect of Modi factor has also to be taken into account, given that he is still the single most popular leader at country level.
3. BJP has very robust election fighting machinery both online and offline viz Digital and having on ground presence. No other party has such a communication network to reach out to people and convey its propaganda. The concept of 'Panna Pramukh' i.e. basically dividing the whole constituency into booths or even lower level has been touted as a revolutionary theory in election management.
4. The National Electronic Media is highly favourable towards BJP, and a great critic of opposition parties. All day along the main motto of electronic media is to question the opposition and tag them as anti national and specifically anti Hindu.
5. BJP has created it's image as of a Law and order enforcing government as opposed to the loose track record of Samajwadi Party in this regard. Despite of big ticket events of law and order failure in cases of Hathras or Lakhimpur, they are popular among Forward castes and polarised population in this regard.
6. Many Social welfare schemes like Kisan Samman Nidhi, Pradhanmantri Awas yojna, Free ration etc. have made available direct cash in the accounts of farmers and other underprivileged people. Cash component has a very high influence on the thinking, pursuation and voting inclination of people at large.
Circumstances warranting Change of Government:
1. General Anti Incumbency which is faced by almost all the governments. In the case of BJP , the poor condition of state highways and city roads along with highly inadequate provisions for drainage and water clogging is causing a major dent on the image of the Government. Along with Akhilesh Yadav emerging as a lone challenger to the current government making it a two way contest has made the scenario even more interesting.
2. Unemployment will prove to be a major election issue, BJP has not been able to project a counterclaim in this regard. Beating of Students in Prayagraj has rubbed salt on the wounds of youth and also shown high handedness of police, the ugly side of the law and order.
3. Akhilesh Yadav has been successful in pitching himself as a CM candidate against Yogi Adityanath, providing an alternative for the people. It should be kept in mind that Indian elections despite being parliamentary type are fought in a presidential style, with high dependence on the charisma of the contesting leaders. The continuing success of BJP at centre in a major way can be attributed to the fact that no single leader has been able to challenge Narendra Modi at the national level.
4. This time the Samajwadi party has been successful in setting the narrative of election in favor of caste politics as against the religious narrative being set by BJP in 2017 elections. Many Non Yadav OBC leaders have joined Samajwadi fold such as Om Prakash Rajbhar, Swami Prasad Maurya,, Jayant Chowdhary etc. who can tilt the balance in its favour.
5. The Samajwadi leadership has been successful in convincing it's cadre of the impending victory, which has committed them for election with full vigour and enthusiasm. The result of any election is the function of the hard work and contribution of the foot soldiers of the party.
6. The ticket distribution strategy of Samajwadi party by opting for Non Muslims and Non Yadav OBC candidates has helped them in improving their image with regard of being a family based Yadav and Muslim centric party. This may also in the long run help them erase their image of being a "Goonda" party.
7. Inflation will prove to be a major rallying point with prices of essential items skyrocketing. Cost of LPG gas cylinder, Mustard oil etc. have almost doubled in last two-three years.
7. The Non mainstream media especially YouTube channels with high subscriber base have been providing a counter narrative against BJP propaganda machinery which may be able to influence people at large.
The results are going to be declared on the 10th of March and the next forty days are going to take you for a roller coaster ride with many candidates jumping from one side to the another depicting the uncertainty of the results.
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